Weve had one atmospheric river (AR), roll through the Pacific NW (Wed/Thu). Its been a mixed blessing. Yes, it definitely feels like fall/winter, but you can feel the mild air too - coming all the way from the subtropics. Yes, in the end, we got snow on the upper slopes-- more than a few inches . But another warm, then cooler AR cycle is on its way.

The next AR is on the menu for Saturday. This roller coaster pattern snow level (SL) is typical in the fall. Each AR brings with it lots of rain/mild air from the southwest -- and usually starts with a high snow level (>6,000 ft). The good news is the snow level gradually lowers (3000-4000 or lower), after the AR moves along, dragging in cold air from the northwest, behind it. That is when the snow starts to pile up.

The warm sector of the AR on Saturday will produce rain on the shallow snowpack we have in place. That limited snowpack is about a trace to about a foot (est.) above 5,000ft (middle and upper slopes). Some of the very shallow snow pack will melt by early Sunday with rain on snow - SL 8,000 ft. Snow melting away will probably be, probably a trace to a few inches. Then we will get new snow, to backfill, later Sunday, as cooler air brings the SL back down to 5,000ft.

After that a couple of dry days, then maybe new snow midweek.

I remain optimistic for an early opening - near or before thanksgiving, as I see no blocking high setting up and La Nina is working its magic (directing the atmospheric circulation) to keep the storm track aimed at us.

La Nina is our friend in the NW we always have good, (cool & snowy) winters in the NW with La Nina. The catch is: we never know when the bulk of the La Nina snow will come in its never consistent month after month. That is why I have the Powder Alert to guide you - Ill see it when it sets up. When a La Nina storm cycle starts unloading the snow - ya gotta go!

Larry Schick
Meteorologist
Your Grand Poobah of Powder
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The Kingdom of the Powder Poobah would like to welcome new sponsor Alpine Physical Therapy, in Freemont. The owners and physical therapist are Christopher, Eli And Jeremiah. They are enthusiastic skiers/boarders - they understand therapy issues related to the outdoor fun especially skiing/boarding. Give them a call.

Announcements:

Snow Angels fundraiser for Crystal mountain volunteer ski patrol/avalanche dogs Saturday Oct 28.

Your Powder Poobah will be there for a presentation, meet with you, answer weather questions, etc.

October 28th at 192 Brewery in Kenmore, 6-9 p.m. Win skis from K2, Blizzard, J Skis/4FRNT, LibTech, and jackets from Outdoor Research. Food, beer, and prizes. Families welcome.

Snowbash
Fundraiser for the NW Avalanche Center
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/snowbash-2017-tickets-38086211885

NW Snow and Avalanche Workshop
www.nwac.us/nsaw