El Niño 2026–27: What It Could Mean for PNW Snow with Larry Schick
DAILY DOSE OF DAYDREAM
Weekend freshies at Crystal Mountain! But summer has a few more sunny days left. Visit Crystal this Friday–Sunday before they close for the season after Sept. 20.
Hello skiers and snowboarders,
El Niño has arrived and is building in the tropical Pacific. The question is, how will it affect snowfall here in the Northwest? First, it’s not as dreadful for the Northwest snowfall as most people think. In fact, a very strong El Niño trends toward near normal snowfall. However, there may be a few areas especially for the Inland NW (interior BC too) that may trend a bit below normal, but not a bust.
El Niño causes a weather pattern shift from normal. This loads the dice to nudge the storms in different ways over the season. But, as always, it’s not a guarantee.
Most El Niños come into existence slowly, tiptoeing in on little cat’s feet. This year’s El Niño is charging in like a raging bull. It is headed toward becoming one of the strongest on record. Forecast strength is impressive as it continues tracking toward record levels by later in the fall.
One issue this winter will be warmth, which will cause changing snow levels from time to time. The warming comes a little from climate change and elevated ocean temperatures. But mostly it’s El Niño causing displaced pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific. One shift is a high pressure in central Canada. That high will block arctic air and means fewer fluffy powder days. Sometimes you’ll need to cherry pick your snow days, as there will be occasional dampness with modest snow levels producing rain on snow for the slopes. Powder Poobah will keep you informed.
Recall that El Niño is the warming of the waters of the east and central Pacific, near the equator. This creates a major, but temporary and limited climate shift. El Niño's occur every 2-7 years and last usually one winter season. This one will be wrapping up later in spring of 2027. El Niños this big are rare, with only a few which are comparable, 1997-98 is the best comparison. A season we did just fine with near average Cascade snowfall.
The El Niño connection with the NW will peak this winter. Do not expect it’s effects until late December through March. The season could start slow, with at least some natural snow and then augmented by snowmaking.
El Niño is currently in progress and forecasts to be very strong. What does all this mean? Its affects are different for different regions – also affecting different weather elements like temperature and snow. Some areas, like the Alps in Europe, they have little or no El Niño connections. However, here on the West Coast, we have confident connections. California gets hammered by strong El Niños, while the Northwest is often indifferent to the whims of El Niño.
All El Niño are different and since this El Nino is so big we have greater than normal confidence the typical impacts will occur. However, its strength also puts us in uncharted territory – there may be surprises.
El Niño Clues Are Already Appearing
Certain El Niño affects are taking place, which boosts confidence when it’s our turn on the West Coast this winter for El Niño to show its stuff.
The Andes of Chile has seen fantastic above normal snowfall the last few months (Portillio and others).
That heavy snowfall is a predictable El Niño / South American winter connection.
Also, the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet – another known and predictable El Niño connection.
Meanwhile the eastern Pacific has been very active with many hurricanes, producing big surf and heavy rain in Hawaii and consistent high surf in Southern California – both expected El Niño connections.
There may be slow start to our ski season in November and December, as there is some indication of that in the past.
Zoom next week
Next week we will have a more comprehensive look at the season ahead with a Powder Poobah Zoom on Sept 24th at 6:30. I will be able to show you in more detail what will happen and how El Niño actually causes the predictable impacts. We’ll explore the important nuances. I’ll take any and all questions.
El Niño is often shrouded in misconceptions. We will help sort it out for you.
Caution – you’ll see many El Niño exaggerated headlines for clickbait.
Be skeptical.
See at the Zoom next week. Get your questions ready or send them in.
Your Grand Powder Poobah of Powder,
Larry Schick
Meteorologist
Above: Confident El Niño in progress into the winter
Above: Winter warmth with occasional high snow levels might influeunce snow quality/quanity
Above: shows normal precipitation for the NW, but drier Inland NW
Wed, Sept 23 from 6:30 - 7:30 PM
This season: El Niño with Larry and your questions answered live.
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From the Powder Poobah
Poobah-approved. Places we shop, people we trust, and gear we actually use.
Gear & Apparel
Sturtevant's in Bellevue and Tacoma. Go see new arrivals, boot work done daily and book your season rentals at Ski Mart
XEVO Optics Take 50% off goggles with code powderpoobah
Woolly Clothing Get ready for winter. 20% off regular items with code powderpoobah
Health & Wellness
Alpine Physical Therapy: Poobah verified, they fixed up Larry. PNW skiers who are experts in outpatient orthopedic and neurological rehab and sports medicine.
Proliance Orthopaedic & Sports Medicine Poobah verified, they fixed up Larry. PNW skiers who are experts in outpatient orthopedic and neurological rehab and sports medicine.
Food, Drink & Community
The Hall Sports Bar, family and dog friendly. Kirkland, Queen Anne and Occidental Hall.
Vertical Grind Coffee by locals, great for your outdoor crew.
Warmth & Essentials
IGNIK Outdoors Camp stoves, refillable growlers, and warmers. Save 25% with code POWDER25
Travel, Safety & Resorts
AAA of Washington. Every driver in the family should have this.
49 Degrees North Plan your next trip to Chewelah, WA
Silver Mountain Resort. Plan your trips now. Check out their pass deals.
Crystal Mountain Resort. Visit this Friday - Sunday. Closing after Sept. 20th. Check the Mountain Report for information on weather, and hiking conditions!
Crystal Mountain Hotels. Make your plans. Stay slopeside. Walk to the gondola + FREE parking. Dining at The Alpine Inn and The Elk.
Read this far?!
Take a look at the lineup and fun I have planned at the upcoming Women's Outdoor Connection event at REI Seattle.
Thanks for reading,
Andrea
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