What happened this winter? PNW 2025–26 recap + what’s ahead.

Nobody knows the future—but that doesn’t mean you sit it out.

As Larry puts it: buy the pass, go anyway, and chase the powder.

This season didn’t play out the way many expected. A favorable La Niña setup gave way to warm storms, inconsistent snowfall, and a lot of near misses.

There’s been a lot of chatter about a potential “super El Niño.” We get into that—but first, here’s what really shaped this season.

We wrapped a live Zoom with Larry Schick (the Powder Poobah) and meteorologist Michael Fagin to break it all down—what shaped the season, where expectations fell short, and what’s ahead.

In this replay:

• PNW winter recap 2025–26

• What impacted snowfall and timing

• El Niño outlook and long-range signals

• What to watch for the rest of the season and beyond

(Zoom recorded April 22, 2026)

Highlights and full transcript below.

Watch the full breakdown on YouTube ⬇️

Snapshot: what shaped this winter

• Warmer-than-normal temps pushed snow levels higher across the PNW

• Many storms arrived too warm, limiting snow at key elevations

• Atmospheric rivers brought moisture—but often fell as rain instead of snow

• Snowfall was inconsistent, with dry stretches and poor timing between storms

• A La Niña setup was present, but didn’t deliver as expected

• Forecasts were more accurate for temperature than snowfall totals

• The overall pattern favored colder conditions in the East and warmer in the West

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What went wrong in 2025–26?

Oh boy, turns out seasonal weather truly is unpredictable. According to Michael, forecasts can be a "crapshoot." Uh oh, where do we go from there?? Hire a psychic, double-time our superstitious dances, lose all faith in weather apps? No, I'm afraid the answer is much less exciting -- take long-range forecasts with a grain of salt. At this rate, we'll be collecting a lot of salt in order to entertain nuances.

Storm after storm came in just warm enough to push snow levels higher than we would have liked. Even when precipitation showed up, it didn’t always fall as snow where it mattered.

At the same time, the broader pattern worked against the Pacific Northwest. While the East saw colder and snowier conditions, the West dealt with a mix of warmth, rain events, and inconsistent timing.

And that timing mattered.

Snow came in bursts, but it didn’t stick. Gains were often erased by warm storms or dry stretches. It wasn’t just about how much snow fell—it was about when it fell and what followed.

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Why didn’t La Niña deliver?

La Niña is typically favorable for the Pacific Northwest—but it’s not a guarantee.

The problem, those temps! Our doorsteps were darkened by three unwanted guests: warm temperatures, atmospheric rivers, and extended dry spells. While our friends back East got cold smoke days and Japow did what Japow does, we endured a rollercoaster season.

Excitement about a strong La Niña gave way to flooding, then we were teased relentlessly with sporadic sprinkles of snow. Many nights were too warm for snowmaking and it seemed like any inch gained was quickly melted away by rain and sun. Climate change factored into this wild ride, but it also reflected natural variations from year to year. Sometimes, we just suffer.

As Larry described it, it’s more of a dial than a switch. It can tilt conditions in our favor, but it doesn’t control the outcome entirely. This year, that dial didn’t turn far enough.

What was expected to be a supportive pattern simply didn’t line up the way it typically does.

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What about El Niño?

El Niño is more of an on/off switch, which means the associated terror that strikes many snow sliders may be unfounded! Currently, the El Niño affect is sitting around neutral, but could swing weak or strong as we head into fall. NOAA predicts above-normal temps and regular snow levels for us, which could mean some nice conditions further south. However, when we look at historical data, we've had killer El Niño years right at home! 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16 saw above average snow depths. The traumatizing 2014/15 season was affected by El Niño, yes, but that affect strengthened and redeemed itself the following winter!

Right now, conditions are trending neutral, with the potential to shift as we move into fall. NOAA is currently projecting above-normal temperatures, but history shows that strong El Niño years have still produced solid snow seasons in the PNW.

In other words, hearing “El Niño” doesn’t mean you should write off the season.

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How reliable are seasonal forecasts?

The long-range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center are fairly good at predicting if temperatures will lean higher or lower than normal, but not as good at calling the seasonal precipitation levels. The strength of weather patterns can wax and wane fairly quickly, yielding a different result than forecasted. Larry compared La Niña to a dial, which can turn a normal PNW winter up, incrementally. This season was a bit of a fluke, since a La Niña forecast is usually reliable -- Larry may even put money down on that, if he were a gamblin' man.

As Michael explained, seasonal forecasts are generally better at predicting temperature trends than precipitation totals. They can often tell us if a season will lean warmer or cooler—but not exactly how much snow we’ll get.

Forecasts also depend on patterns that can shift quickly. What looks like a strong signal months out can weaken or change as the season unfolds.

That’s why consistency matters. Even when the overall setup looks favorable—like La Niña typically does for the PNW—the details still have to line up.

This year, they didn’t.

The takeaway: Mother Nature has a while before she decides if we get coal or pow in our stockings. Powder Poobah will offer the very best information as we draw closer to winter, so all you need to do is click open these newsletters and get stoked for snow!

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The takeaway

Seasonal forecasts can point us in the right direction—but they don’t decide the outcome.

For now, the best approach is simple:

• Stay flexible

• Watch conditions as they develop

• Don’t overreact to early signals

Or, as Emma put it: take long-range forecasts with a grain of salt.

We’ll keep tracking it—and as always, Powder Poobah will keep you in the loop.

Thank you to Larry, Michael for all the research, and Emma for the recap notes.

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Full discussion

If you want the full breakdown in Larry and Michael’s own words, keep reading. Lightly edited for clarity. Filler words and repetition have been removed, but technical language and explanations are preserved.

Atmospheric rivers and snowpack

Larry: We had many atmospheric rivers, but they didn’t translate into good snowpack.

Larry: You see strong storms on the map, but if they’re too warm, they just don’t help build the base.

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Why the season felt inconsistent

Michael: There were stretches where we’d get some snow, but then we’d have dry periods or warmer storms that erased those gains.

Larry:It wasn’t just about totals—it was about timing. We didn’t have the consistency that really builds a strong season.

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Slides coming soon.

Powder Poobah Forecast Zoom — Full Transcript

PNW Ski Season Recap & Next Season Outlook

Participants: Larry Schick (Meteorologist), Michael Fagin (Meteorologist), Andrea Hamilton (Host)

Part 1: What Went Wrong This Season

Larry Schick:

I want to recap real quick what the problem was this season. We kind of had our ups and downs, but it really was the warmth that hurt us. That map to the upper right shows the temperature departure from average, from basically October through just recently. It was warmer than normal through most of the West, especially over parts of the Rocky Mountains, but warm enough through much of the Northwest and California, and that caused high snow levels for us.

Sometimes it caused no precipitation at all for many people, and so the snowpack was very poor. We had this warm southwesterly incoming moist air. We had many atmospheric rivers, some very strong — they created flooding. And it also was the configuration and location of these highs and lows over the West, and really over the continental U.S. As you may recall, much of the East Coast had colder than normal and snowier than normal conditions. This is a pattern we sometimes see, where the West gets stuck with high pressure, low pressure in the East, and you have just the opposite weather.

In the background is maybe 1 or 2 degrees of climate change warming, and that's worth a little bit of a rise in the snow levels over the years. But the overall seasonal weather is really what's driving our wacky weather — it's not climate change as much as it's just natural variations. This was a rough one. And this was forecast to be a weak La Niña, which generally favors us, so that was sort of a surprise as well.

Part 2: Snowpack by the Numbers

Larry Schick:

Our SNOTEL instrumentation up in the mountains shows the precipitation — the green and blue areas all over the western United States. The precipitation over the Northwest was pretty good, 100 to 115% of normal. Even over parts of California and Colorado it wasn't bad. But if you look at the actual snowpack, you see a lot of red. It was the warmth that was hurting us. We had precipitation, lots of it, but high snow levels were a problem, and extended dry periods. California had an awful dry period during March, but we did get some really good snow back in March there. It can vary quite a bit through much of the West.

BC did pretty well along the Rockies — not quite as good as parts of the interior. The Rockies did better than the interior, and Whistler did okay, about 60 to 70 to 80% of normal, which is about what Mount Baker in Washington did. As you went farther south in the Cascades of Washington and Oregon, the snowfall really did taper off. Oregon had a really rough year.

Here's what the profile looked like at two ski areas — Mt. Baker to the left, and Crystal Mountain to the right. The blue line is what's average. Those gray lines are different seasons for the last 50 or so years, and the orange line is what happened this year.

At Mount Baker — very flat between November and mid-December, almost nothing really. Then we had quite a good surge toward the first of the year, and Christmas holiday helped out. Still was below normal. Then it kind of went along flat, started to build toward March, and then it's been a little up and down — but stayed below normal. Some of these really bad years were worse than us, but we were definitely in one of the worst years.

Crystal had a big gap of information during March — I can tell you they did get some decent snow in March — but they had sort of the same profile. It started off flat. They couldn't even do snowmaking it was so warm. That was the case at Whistler and Crystal. Snowmaking sometimes helps them out, but it was just too warm even at night. Then we got a good surge of snowfall toward the holidays — still below normal though.

You can see this big year at both Crystal and Mount Baker. That was the famous 1998–99 La Niña. That was the record. That was the big monster at Mount Baker: 1,140 inches of snow.

Here's another way to look at it — a SNOTEL instrumentation site near Crystal at about 6,000 feet. The snowfall kind of bounced along in December, then started to build, then flattened out in January and February, and then built quite heavily in March. Some of that was melt, some of it was rain on snow that melted. We stayed below normal most of the year, but the precipitation stayed above or near normal almost the whole year. That shows what the pattern was for most of the year — just this warmth was killing us.

When you finally got snow — remember that big snowstorm with the wind, road closures, power outages? Finally got the snow, and then couldn't get up there, and then it rained on top of it about a day or two later. It was really tough in the Cascades sometimes.

Part 3: El Niño and La Niña — How They Work

Larry Schick:

We're going to talk a little bit about El Niño and La Niña, because those are the main drivers of our predictable weather — and I mean long-term, seasonal weather, weather patterns over a season, many months. These are the only ones that really help predict our long-term weather.

El Niño is the warm water near the equator. La Niña is just the opposite — cold water. The warm water tends to produce thunderstorms in the tropics that are misplaced from their normal position. What that does is affect areas down toward the tropics, but it also telegraphs — we call it teleconnections — between the tropics and the mid-latitudes. We live at about 47 degrees north latitude. What it does is modify the storm track. We've noticed that over the years. But there are variations to this all the time.

These warm and cool areas of water shift around, and the warm areas of water are associated with clusters of thunderstorms, and that's what causes the different variations in our storm track. El Niño is going to produce moisture down through the southwestern United States. It modifies the storm track, which is always there every year — but sometimes it goes north, sometimes it goes south, sometimes it comes straight into us.

On a typical El Niño pattern, we get warmer than normal — so we're going to be plagued with some high snow levels again next year. That doesn't mean every storm, it just means we'll have quite a few. There's going to be an invigorated southern jet stream — called the subtropical jet — and that's going to mean wetter conditions in the Southwest and parts of California and through the southern tier of states.

A lot of people think El Niño and La Niña affect Europe. They do not affect Europe. They only affect certain areas, and only certain weather elements. You're going to hear everything being blamed on El Niño next year, but there are only certain things you can associate with it.

Part 4: Is El Niño Really a Death Sentence for Northwest Snow?

Larry Schick:

This year was a La Niña — that's supposed to really favor us — and it really did not.

Peter Kelly:

Oh, great.

Larry Schick:

As Chris Farley said, all storms must bow to El Niño — but must we really bend a knee? I don't think so. He's a big loudmouth.

Here are some examples. 1982–83 was a big El Niño year. Look at Mt. Baker that year: above normal. Crystal, that same year — a little bit below normal, but it tracked pretty close. Got a little thin there later in March, but still much better than we had this year.

1997–98, another big strong El Niño. Mount Baker? Near to, and a lot of times above normal through the season. Crystal turned out to be above normal.

I'm just not that pessimistic on El Niño. But here's the exception — it does go the other way. We had a weak El Niño in 2014–15, and it was really bad. One of the worst, if you remember that one. Same with Crystal — really bad. But look at a year later: the El Niño actually strengthened. Normally they don't last this long, but this was a 20-month episode. It lasted into the next season. It was strong by then, and look at that — with the strong one, it did pretty well at Baker and pretty well at Crystal. So it's not a death sentence, but it can be fickle. Be careful of that.

Here's a good example: 2015–16, we had above-normal precipitation, but it was really warm, so we had a snowpack drought essentially, with above-normal precipitation. In 1997–98, it was a combination of some warmth and just plain dry periods. El Niño did produce moisture down in the Southwest that year — Taos, Southern California, parts of the Sierra really did well — but not so well in 2015–16.

Part 5: What's the El Niño Forecast for Next Season?

Larry Schick:

Here's what's going on right now. It's currently at neutral — it isn't El Niño yet. It's headed that way according to the forecast, but it doesn't really get firmly established until midsummer. The forecast range is between a very strong El Niño and a more moderate one. There's about a 25% chance of a very strong one and another 25% chance of a strong one — so moderate to strong is about a 50% probability. There are multiple forecast models, so there's a range. The mid-range is where we're going for at this point. We'll know more by July and August. I do think it will be an El Niño.

What NOAA is forecasting for next winter — December, January, February — is above-normal temperatures and kind of below-normal precip in the inland Northwest, but kind of equal chances of above or below through much of California, Oregon, and Washington. That doesn't mean every storm is going to be warmer than normal — it just means probably more storms than not are going to trend that way.

By the way, I did take a timeout this winter and went down to South America and Antarctica. I checked out Portillo, and I put a Powder Poobah sticker on their sticker pole. If you ski down there this summer, go find the Powder Poobah sticker, get your picture taken next to it, and we'll put it on the air. That's at 9,000 feet in the Andes — no trees.

Part 6: El Niño Hype — Myths and Resources

Larry Schick:

There's going to be a lot of hype with El Niño, so be careful. Watch our Powder Poobah site — we'll keep you up to date. Here are some other solid sites:

- El Niño Page from Golden Gate Weather (Jan Null, San Francisco) — great El Niño and La Niña statistics and assessments

- Tony Crocker's "Your Guide to Snow" — everything statistically about snow and skiing at every ski area; he's skied over 250 ski areas

- Cliff Mass's Blog — well-known here in the Northwest

- Weather West Blog — California-focused, another good one

- The Secrets of the Greatest Snow on Earth — a very good book

- Northwest Avalanche Center — good information and forecasts

- National Weather Service

If you see something that looks a little wacky — and there are going to be so many exaggerated claims with everything blamed on a Super El Niño — just don't believe it. There's a lot of amateur forecasting and everybody's after clickbait now.

A couple of El Niño myths:

1. There are no "El Niño storms." El Niño creates an environment that makes the storm track do certain things. Not every storm is an El Niño storm.

2. All El Niños are not the same. They all have nuances and variations.

3. El Niño is kind of an on/off button. Whether it's weak or strong, you still get the same general impacts — the stronger ones just give us more confidence the impacts will occur, because they're at the high end, and if they back off a little, it's still El Niño.

There are no guarantees, but I would lean toward warmer. That's for sure.

Travel tips:

- Don't book until you see decent snow on the ground.

- Portillo, Chile this summer — or anywhere in South America — will be favored by El Niño.

- Telluride, Mammoth, Arizona Snowbowl, Taos, and Wolf Creek — all in the Southwest — will be favored if this El Niño comes through.

- Northwest skiing is not a bus, but sometimes it'll be a struggle. Be skeptical of the hype.

- We'll have an update in September.

Part 7: How Accurate Are Seasonal Forecasts? (Michael Fagin)

Michael Fagin:

I know I've been asked this question especially this past winter — what was wrong with the forecast, and is this common? I want to look at the recent forecasts, especially from the Climate Prediction Center, because they're the folks generally looking at our extended forecasts.

People ask how Larry and I do the powder alerts. I think this is Larry with the dartboard and the dart, and this is me saying "kick me." But seriously.

The Climate Prediction Center — we all like to look at their forecast come mid-October. It generally gives us a look at the fall. Are we going to be able to ski in the fall and early winter?

This past October, their early forecast covering November, December, and January called for seasonal temperatures on average and above-average precipitation. And we know what really happened this winter, sadly.

The Climate Prediction Center doesn't give absolute temperatures — like it's going to be 2 or 3 degrees above normal. They give a percent: is there a 30% possibility of above-normal temperatures, or 90%? Same with precipitation. It's a probability situation, not absolute numbers.

I looked at the last 20 years of forecasts issued in October for November through January. Overall, they were right 65% of the time on temperature. Not bad. Precipitation — that's problematic. They were right 45% of the time, wrong 40% of the time.

Then I looked at El Niño conditions specifically:

- Temperature: right 75% of the time, wrong 12.5%

- Precipitation: right 25% of the time, wrong 62.5% of the time — awful

El Niño's temperature signal is strong. Precipitation — not so.

La Niña conditions:

- Temperature: right 90% of the time

- Precipitation: right 55% of the time — better than El Niño, but still not as high as we'd like

Grading this past winter:

The October forecast predicted above-average precipitation — what actually occurred was only average. They were wrong. Temperature — they forecast normal temperatures. But look at December: just about every single day was above normal. As Larry indicated, those above-average temperatures were the culprit behind our low snowpack.

NOAA has a skill score system. For Washington State winters, they scored a 60 on temperature — considered excellent. The rest of the U.S. scored only 20. Our temperature forecast for winter is pretty accurate. Precipitation? They scored 5 to 15 — considered poor. Back to the dartboard scenario.

Bottom line on CPC winter forecasts: mixed bag. Temperature — they do well. Precipitation — not so.

Part 8: How Accurate Is the April El Niño Forecast?

Michael Fagin:

Do we need a psychic to figure this out? Larry's already talked about all the hype — "Super El Niño," is this a done deal or not?

I looked at the European Forecast Model's El Niño forecasts going back several years. The y-axis is the sea surface temperature departure, going from 2 degrees above to 1 degree below. The x-axis runs October through December. The model runs 20 ensemble forecasts — a spaghetti plot — and the dark line is what actually happened.

- 2018: Pretty good forecast.

- 2019: The April forecast did really poorly until October hit. Not very helpful.

- 2020: European forecast was way above what actually occurred. Way off.

- 2021: Also off.

- 2023: Extremely off.

- 2024: That was a good forecast.

- 2025: Bad.

This is a crapshoot. All this hype about a strong El Niño, a Super El Niño — not so fast. The forecasts have not been that accurate.

Conclusion:

- CPC winter forecast: really good skill for temperatures, especially during La Niña or El Niño. Not the case for precipitation.

- April El Niño forecast for October: mixed results.

Stay tuned to the links Larry mentioned. We'll keep you posted and give you the facts.

Part 9: Q&A

Japan — How Does El Niño Affect It?

Andrea Hamilton:

How does El Niño usually affect Japan, and what is the snow forecast for Japan next season?

Larry Schick:

Japan is about 50 to 100 miles offshore from mainland Asia, and all that cold air masses over Asia. When it moves over the Sea of Japan, it sucks up moisture — takes about 25 to 50 miles — and then it dumps it on the mountains of the north island. It's a snow machine there, and that's why it's so good.

El Niño does tend to nudge it a little bit warmer than normal there — that's a consideration. But I wouldn't cancel a trip over a long-range forecast. Here's the thing about long-range forecasts: you don't know if it's going to be the best week ever when you get there, even though the rest of the time hasn't been so good. Are you going to change your mind and not ski next year? No — I'm buying a pass every year. Don't get yourself into a tizzy. Long-range forecasts are not very good, and what great decisions can you really make? Go to Japan — that's what I say.

Michael Fagin:

You nailed it. Don't cancel any trips based on seasonal forecasts.

Larry Schick:

One thing I'd add: if you plan a trip, make sure you can cancel it until you see snow on the ground. Or get travel insurance.

Andrea Hamilton:

My son got to go for four weeks and got some great snow.

Why Is the European Model Considered Better Than the U.S. GFS?

Michael Fagin:

The European forecast model has just consistently been much more accurate than the U.S. GFS for many years. Europe continues to put a lot more resources into their forecasting models than we do. I've seen a couple of studies on the new AI version of the European forecast model, and that's showing even more accuracy than their old one. They've just been ahead of the U.S. for many, many years.

Larry Schick:

Yes, they are better. When we get closer — two to three days out — they all tend to converge. The European model also doesn't go out as long in range as the U.S. model does. And are you going to make a different decision 10 days from now versus 7 days from now? That's part of the equation.

I talked to the head of the European Model Extreme Precipitation group and told him what a lot of people say. He kind of laughed. I said, "We figure the American models are like beer, and the European models are like champagne." He goes, "You know, sometimes the U.S. models do beat the European models. You don't know in any given situation who's going to win. Over 10 storms, maybe European is going to be better, but in any particular case, you don't know." Generally speaking, I think there's a little more hype around it than is warranted — but that's just my opinion.

Does the El Niño Forecast Cover Inland BC?

Andrea Hamilton:

Julie asks: does this El Niño forecast encompass the inland BC areas?

Larry Schick:

Yes, it does. When I was working for the government, the U.S. and BC governments did not want their extended forecasts overlapping, so you'll notice the maps end right at the border. You can only infer from the curvature of the graphic — it kind of bleeds over into BC. In an El Niño case, yes, it will be warmer than normal up through BC and most of western Canada. Precipitation-wise, the interior and Whistler are not as sensitive to El Niño as other areas, so I wouldn't overrate it for BC.

Andrea Hamilton:

She also asks: what is the NOAA equivalent for BC or Canada in general?

Larry Schick:

The NOAA equivalent in Canada is called Environment Canada. The graphic I used was from the BC River Forecast Centre.

AI and Weather Forecasting

Andrea Hamilton:

Ed Ferguson asks: I hear AI is doing a better job forecasting than the big U.S. and Euro weather models. What do you think about AI improving forecasting?

Michael Fagin:

I saw some analysis from meteorologist Ryan Maue, who does a really good job. He was saying the European AI forecast model is showing more accuracy than the old one. He also said the U.S. GFS AI version is not much of an improvement over the old one. He's done a lot of studies and looked at a lot of data. I can provide his link so others can look at that analysis.

Larry Schick:

I think there's a lot of potential with AI, because AI knows everything, in a sense. It's going to be interesting, and it's going to evolve into a very good thing. But there's still going to be uncertainty. One thing about a forecast — it's probability. That's what it is. You're always playing the odds, and you don't know if that forecast is the one that doesn't work out. The previous 100 have all worked out, and you get overconfident, and then the next one doesn't. You have to be cautious and realize it is a probability. Nobody knows the future.

Michael Fagin:

Google's GraphCast — I've looked at some of those forecast models, and that's showing some good degree of accuracy. You have to monitor it, and it's not just one model. But there are more AI-driven forecast models coming out that show some promise.

Larry Schick:

We're going to have to have AI monitor itself.

Michael Fagin:

That's your job, Larry.

Scott T: La Niña vs. El Niño Forecast Accuracy

Scott T:

If you were to generalize forecast accuracy, would it look something like this: La Niña temperature and precipitation forecast for the PNW much more accurate than El Niño — but temperature for both pretty good overall? Is it better than a coin toss?

Larry Schick:

I've thought about this a lot. I've always thought that La Niña was better for the Northwest in the sense that it was more consistently correct on its impacts. Its impacts are generally a little bit cooler than normal, but snowier than normal. I've looked at that really carefully, and I think that's true — La Niña has a much better connection. El Niño has a kind of negative connection — it's drier, or warmer, or just not as good for snowpack. It still can affect us, but La Niña is a much more confident forecast. That would be the only long-range forecast I would bet on. If you gave me a strong La Niña, I would bet on that.

Michael Fagin:

My analysis confirms that — La Niña is a much, much better forecaster.

Scott T:

What is it about El Niño that makes the forecast less accurate than La Niña for the Pacific Northwest?

Larry Schick:

Think of it this way. La Niña is just an intense version of normal for the Northwest. Normally we get pretty consistent and good precipitation and snow. If you take normal — that's pretty good in the Northwest — and enhance it, it's even better. El Niño is just the opposite: it takes away all that enhancement of La Niña. There's more correlation between normal and La Niña than there is between normal and El Niño.

El Niño is an on/off switch. La Niña is more like a thermostat where you're cranking it up. It's temperature-driven down in the tropics — what temperature the water is drives those clusters of thunderstorms. That's what El Niño really does.

Michael Fagin:

That's as good an explanation as I could come up with.

Scott T:

Thank you — that helps a lot.

Larry Schick:

And remember, playing in the background — I talked to the Climate Prediction Center guys when I worked with the Corps of Engineers. They said El Niño/La Niña is one driver, but the last 10 years of trends is another. If there's a 10-year trend of warmth, they're going to keep that in the forecast for the next year. And then some extended modeling. That's what drives those forecasts.

The "Blob" — Is Warm Pacific Water a New Signal for Poor Snow?

Andrea Hamilton:

David Bruce notes that 2014–15 had a warm blob of water in the Pacific — and it was a terrible snow year. This season also had a warm blob at the beginning. Is this the new signal we should look for to identify poor snow years?

Larry Schick:

In my opinion, no. The blob — about 10 years ago — was this big area of warm water in the Pacific that was going to do all sorts of things. The University of Washington did a really interesting study. They modeled the weather for that winter, and then removed the blob — took the temperatures back to normal — to see what the difference was. The only difference they found was a little bit of coastal cooling. That was about it. It didn't affect the storm track. It might have induced a little bit of warmth right along the coastal stretch, but that's no surprise if the water's a little warmer.

What's going on with this warmth is the oceans are warming up with global warming, and that's playing in the background of natural variations. If this was going to be a warmer than normal winter naturally, global warming makes it slightly warmer — a degree or two — than the long-term average. That's kind of what's going on.

Michael Fagin:

The warm blob from this fall was also pretty short-lived, so I don't think it had much of an impact.

Larry Schick:

That's an excellent point.

Will Powder Forecasts Suffer If the Colorado Climate Research Center Closes?

Andrea Hamilton:

Mary asks: will powder forecasts suffer if the Colorado Climate Research Center closes?

Michael Fagin:

The research for the forecast models would be hurt. If the U.S. forecast models aren't getting upgraded because they closed down UCAR, then we'll just lean more on the European forecast. It's not what we want — and maybe it won't happen.

Wrap-Up

Andrea Hamilton:

Survey highlights — we have about 300 replies. A few high points:

- Whistler is the number one out-of-area resort where people go

- BC Interior is the number one place where people want to see more coverage — that was Michael's idea, and I was able to go to Fernie in March for two days on snow and loved it

- Japan is the number one dream destination

- Powder Highway and Oregon maps have been requested — that's on the list

We all appreciate our subscribers and our sponsors — that's how this all happens. I'll send an email out with the recap and highlights. If you have any other questions, email them in — Michael and Larry are not leaving. We'll have a couple more emails, but no forecasting.

Thank you, Larry. Thank you, Michael. Thank you, Susan Kingsbury. And thank you, everyone.

Larry Schick:

Thanks, everyone. Bye-bye!

Tracy Gibbons:

See you at White Pass!

Andrea Hamilton:

It's gonna be sunny. Okay — done.

Larry Schick:

That was good. Fun.

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Read Larry's April 20 write up here

Thanks for reading,

Andrea