Larry’s Take on Winter 2025-26. What's up La Niña?

Andrea Hamilton
22 hours ago
4 min read

Hello NW skiers and snowboarders,

Hope you had a great summer, it was a good one. Now it’s time to welcome fall and look forward to snow falling in the mountains.

Already there is good news from the weather desk.

I don’t see any blocking high pressure patterns at this point, which would delay the start to the active fall and winter weather season.
The storms generally start to get more robust in mid to late October, so it’s still early.

As always, we will monitor atmospheric changes from the safety and luxury of the gilded Poobah bunker, while keeping you up to date.

Another positive, there are favorable vibes from the forecasted El Niño/La Niña phase. The phase is currently neutral but leaning toward a weak La Niña.

La Niña is a favorable pattern for the Pacific Northwest, with above confidence for good snowfall. Also, La Niña nudges a tilt toward cooler than normal. That extra chill can produce potentially more powder days.

What we want to avoid is El Niño. El Niño causes NW snow problems, like in the pathetic snow seasons of 2005 and 2015. There is little or no chance of El Niño this winter.

El Niño/La Niña is warming or cooling of tropical Pacific Ocean waters, which in turn affects global winter weather patterns.

I would plan on a normal start to the ski season. There should be sufficient natural and machine-made snow by Thanksgiving to get onto the slopes. I expect a normal season, but normal can be characterized by snowy and cold patterns, with dry and warm patterns mixed in. Remember one great month of powder dumping does not always sustain itself. Get it while the getting is good. We are lucky here in the NW we can go skiing on short notice – because the snow is close.

As shown on the maps, NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for winter, centered on December, January and February 2026 is favorable.

Note in the Pacific Northwest, the precipitation (mountain snow) outlook shows no tendency, so expect near normal.

But we don’t know how it will come in, early, middle or late? The temperature outlook leans cool, influenced by a weak La Niña That implies good snow quality. But embedded in the mix we can always get a warm spell.

I will have more updates in the months ahead, becoming more frequent as we get closer to opening as the parade of Pacific storms begins in the Northwest and pile up mountain snow.

We have a lot planned for you this season including more ski / weather Zoom presentations with all your questions answered and insights into the snowfall. Thanks to Michael for taking over when I go skiing. And of course, thanks to Andrea who runs the entire program.

Winter in the mountains comes early. In the meantime, have a great fall.

The Grand Poobah of Powder

Larry Schick – meteorologist

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