Very Strong El Niño: What It Means for Pacific Northwest Skiing
El Niño is strengthening, but the Northwest ski season is not a bust.
Hello skiers and snowboarders,
We are in for one last warm spell of year on Thursday and Friday. Expect temperatures in the upper 60’s and 70’s. Get out and enjoy. The weekend will see cooler temperatures with showers, then some improvement on Sunday but still cool. I don’t see much significant weather for next week, with generally dry conditions.
The autumn rains and mountain snowfall typically begin with consistent and increasing intensity about the last week of October in the Pacific Northwest. Right now, the forecast in that time period is uncertain, but leaning dry.
There is no connection with El Niño and how fall weather unfolds in the Northwest. So don’t think any particular fall pattern (stormy or dry) will project itself into your winter. El Niño’s main influence is later December – March. Even though you’ll hear El Niño will peak in November or December, which is true – this one is so strong, even coming off its Nov/Dec peak, it will remain in the very strong category and influence the West Coast weather all winter long.
In the tropical Pacific, this very strong El Niño continues to strengthen and is now near or greater than the strongest on record. It means California and the Southwest U.S will have a stormy winter. For us another story, but not bad news.
This winter, in the Pacific Northwest, it’s not bust.
In fact, we’ve had some strong El Niños with near and above normal snowfall, like 1982-83 and 1997-98. Remember, this is a seasonal forecast. Its an overall forecast for the winter (Dec-March).
We can’t tell which month or week will be the best or worst.
You should always follow short range forecasts with the Powder Alert and target for the most favorable day or week to ski.
Warmth is one thing I have seen lately with climate change, and it will be reinforced by with this very strong El Niño. I think we may have a slow start to the snow season with early season storms being warm. When the season starts, consider favoring higher elevation slopes and areas with snow making. Warmth and elevated snow levels will occasionally plague us throughout the season but will be more problematic early in the season. We will have some fantastic days, but you may have to pivot quickly and cherry pick them.
There is also a chance the Inland Northwest and Interior BC/Alberta Rockies of could be more problematic with warmth and/or dry spells with El Niño. The reason is blocking high pressure tends set up near those Inland Northwest areas during strong Niño’s. The high deflects storms and shoves arctic air eastward. Again, there will be fantastic ski days, but be ready to modify the plan.
It’s not disaster season ahead, there will be many wonderful runs ahead. But you must pick the good snow days, for best results– but that is true every season.
Larry Schick -- Meteorologist
Grand Poobah of Powder – aka Snow Boss
Winter is coming. Let’s get ready.
Come find us at Snowvana this weekend—Friday through Sunday.
We’ll have fresh Poobah stickers, shirts for sale and the hat press running on-site.
Highlights
Gear deals up to 70% off—skis, snowboards, boots, outerwear, and more.
Meet 15 ski resorts and score exclusive lift-ticket and lodging offers.
CONSIGN your gear, keep 70%, and get free admission! The swap benefits Team Alpental Snoqualmie. Drop off Thurs or Fri. Read more: Register your gear.
Tickets start at $5 in advance. Kids 12 and under are free. Toyota owners get two free admissions with their key!
You’ve got the mountains. Who’s going with you?
Note from Andrea:
Come solo or bring a friend. Make it a date night.
Join me Friday, Oct. 23 at REI Seattle to meet other outdoor people and explore why nature—and connection—helps us feel better. Meet up to 20 outdoor groups, plus Darn Tough Socks, Volkl Ski and The Summit at Snoqualmie.
We’ll have Oktoberfest food from Queen Anne BeerHall, bites from Seattle's Dingfelder's Deli and Tillamook. With a panel on nature, stress and belonging.
Everyone is welcome—yes, guys too! Come solo, bring a friend, or make it a date night. You could win a $500 Woolly Clothing shopping spree!
REI Seattle · Open to everyone (gals and guys)
FREE parking.
Oktoberfest dinner and non-alcoholic beverages included.
6–8 PM • $25 includes dinner • Free parking
Check in at the main entrance starting at 5:30 PM, then head upstairs to the second floor.
Sat, Oct 24 | 11:00 - 4 pm
Find Your People | 20 Outdoor Groups
Love getting outside but looking for someone to go with? Meet the local groups that lead fun adventures and discover easy ways to connect with people who share your outdoor passions. Come on your own—lots of us do. You might leave with a new friend and your next outing on the calendar.
REI Seattle · Women centeredCheck in starts at 10:30 am
FREE parking. Lunch and non-alcoholic beverages included.
Tickets $45
Thanks for reading!
Thank you to the sponsors who help keep the Powder Alert coming.
Andrea
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