A strong El Niño? Larry weighs in plus 10' snow at Portillo

Jul 20
3 min read

Hello skiers and snowboarders,

El Niño Update.

Hope you are staying cool during this heat wave. Like many of you I have fans, but no A/C. I can only dream of a chilly snowy day to keep my cool – but I can also watch it snow on live cams in Chile.

El Niño continues to evolve and all indications are it might be one of the strongest on record by fall. Recall that El Niño is an unusual shift in warm ocean water along the tropical Pacific, which happens every 2-7 years. That shift of warm ocean water modifies weather patterns around the planet. We rarely will see one this strong, if it pans out as forecast.

Ski Portillo at about 9,000 ft is in the Andes, north and east of Santiago. They just got a monster snow dump of 10 ft of snow in the last week. This is an area known for poor snowfall, with only about 200” or less a year at the ski area since 2010 – far less than our average Cascade seasonal snowfall. The latitude there is similar to San Diego with a Mediterranean climate, but in the alpine highlands of the Andes. This heavy snowfall is exactly what I’d expect from a strong El Niño for skiing in Chile. The strong El Niño of 1972 buried Ski Portillo with 739” of snow for the season.

This is a picture I took last February (their summer) of the road to Ski Portillo, Chile. It is closed today with heavy snowfall. The picture shows about half of the 29 switchbacks of the climb to Ski Portillo.

Snowy photo from @SkiPortillo and @Portillo.Tours

Long Range Forecasts: I’ve been following long range forecasts for 50 plus years and I have often been disappointed. They have a poor track record. It’s complicated, but it’s the best we can do for now. I must say given the forecast strength of this El Niño, as shown by the models and present indications, my confidence is as high as I’ve ever had for the promised impacts. We are already seeing it in South America. We will definitely have an El Niño – it’s how strong?

A strong El Niño generally means robust snowfall for California and the mountains of southwest U.S. El Niño is indifferent/irrelevant for snowfall trends in Colorado and Utah – could go either way.

The graph above indicates a 100% chance of El Niño and a very good chance (80%) of a very strong El Nino by fall.

Here in the Northwest, we sometimes suffer in places with less than normal snowfall, BUT that is mainly the Inland NW (Idaho/Montana / Inland BC) This is not a bust, but sometimes a struggle. And right now, the NOAA outlook is for no trend of above or below normal precipitation for the Cascades. Warmth and high snow levels might be a problem at times.

A strong El Niño modifies the way the overall pattern sets up. That includes sometimes cutting off modified arctic air for us, which means fewer very dry, fluffy powder days in the Cascades and little or no snow possible for Seattle . Also there is also the background warmth of 2-3 degrees from climate change.

The good news: The best match for a similar year appears to be the winter of 1997-98. A look at that winter saw a slow start here in Western Washington for skiing but: near normal seasonal snowfall for Baker, Stevens and Snoqualmie and above snowfall for Crystal, White and Mission. I believe this snow season will be sometimes challenging but overall good at times.

As usual, there are no guarantees. And again, I am concerned about warmth (high snow levels), which could hurt our snow totals

All El Niño‘s are different. More updates to come…

Larry Schick -- Powder Poobah

Meteorologist