The dreaded Atmospheric River returns 😬

Andrea Hamilton
Oct 30
4 min read

Hello NW skiers and snowboarders,

The recent new snowfall has really amped the stoke for skiers and snowboarders. But unfortunately, there are short term changes in the wind:

THE DREADED ATMOSHPERIC RIVER (AR) for Friday.

It’s not uncommon in the fall season to see ARs and they tend to be warm this time of year with high snow levels.
As we all know, AR heavy rain often produces the biggest floods in November and December.
Later in the season ARs can be better snow producers, under the right conditions.
This upcoming AR will beat up the meager current snowpack pretty good. Ouch.

Right now, there is a shallow, but healthy snowpack for late October in the Cascades and mountains of the Inland Pacific Northwest. The base areas have a trace to several inches, while the upper slopes have a promising one to two feet plus.

There is snow making in progress for some resorts. Increased snowmaking will start to fill in some of the coverage gaps (see Whistler cams). I have seen some NW resorts open with less snow than this current snowpack like Whistler & Crystal in Dec 2022, so we are doing well for now. We still have a month to go before many areas are scheduled to open.

Here is what is going to happen on Friday.

With the approaching AR, the snow levels will rise to 7,000 – 8,000 feet on Friday afternoon/evening - so rain on snow for all slopes.
The AR will produce heavy rain, several inches of rain from Friday to later Saturday. Rainfall and wind will pound our thin snowpack.
This is a recipe to degrade and melt much of the current snow, mainly at the mid and lower slopes.
Not pretty.
Lower slopes will be almost wiped clean of snow however some snow will survive the onslaught on the upper slopes.
It takes a lot of rainfall to melt a 1-2 ft snowpack on the upper slopes.

The glimmer of good news is the AR will move through by Saturday dragging in cold air behind it and the snow level will drop to 4,000-5,000ft., by later Saturday and Sunday. As a result, we will get some new snow to recover a bit on the mid and upper slopes (1-3” – mainly Stevens, Baker, Whistler).

The weather giveth and taketh away – that is often the cycle we see in the early fall for the Northwest.

This weekend and Monday will see a partially dry pattern; you’ll see the fresh snow covering the distant Cascades and Olympics. Then there might be another AR on Tuesday, to renew the cycle. And more later next week. But even with the AR rain on snow issues, they often leave us with a bit of snow when they exit with cooler air, so the cumulative effect is it keeps slowly building the snowpack.

You know the story - two steps forward, one back.

Again, we have plenty of time. There are no high-pressure dry blocking patterns for now and that is good news. The weather pattern is progressive, which means lots of action and potential snowfall. Gradually the ARs will cool off a bit as the vast Pacific Ocean warmth decreases, and the winter unfolds over the northern ocean.

Happy Halloween

Your Grand Poobah,

Larry Schick, Meteorologist

P.S. Don’t miss:

• Sponsor Shoutouts — keeping the stoke alive

• 1992 “learning to ride” day with Mervin’s Nib and Troy!

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