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Jan 15- No snow coming ā€” What is La NiƱa doing?

  • Writer: Andrea Hamilton
    Andrea Hamilton
  • 3 days ago
  • 5 min read

Hello Skiers and Snowboarders,


ļ»æShort-Term Forecast

Friday and through the weekend, we will continue to be under a strong ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft. This will bring continued dry conditions; sorry, we will need to wait for the snow to return to the Pacific Northwest. We have more details below regarding the snowpack and how the forecast models have performed.



Last week, 1/9 top of Alpental. Wed, Jan 14 report was icy conditions.
Last week, 1/9 top of Alpental. Wed, Jan 14 report was icy conditions.

The current pattern will bring us low clouds in the morning and especially low clouds in Eastern Washington. We will have east winds at times, which can bring low clouds from the east. This occurs especially near Snoqualmie Pass and Stevens Pass. The higher slopes will tend to have fewer clouds. Finally, Mt. Baker and Crystal Mt. tend to be less impacted by the lower clouds.



Snow and Weather Summary


  • Friday: Dry! Mild in the afternoon, especially on the upper slopes and sunny

  • Saturday: No changes are expected

  • Sunday: Continued dry. Mild in the afternoon, especially on the upper slopes and sunny


Extended Outlook:


Monday, Jan. 19 to Wednesday, Jan. 21

We continue with a blocking pattern for Monday and Tuesday, so we expect dry conditions. Last week, we had a ļ»æ Rex Block Pattern at times. With this pattern, the jet stream and associated wet weather systems are steered away. On Monday, we will have an Omega Block, which is depicted in the second map. Named since the high pressure and the low pressure on either side of it resemble the Greek letter Ī©, omega. The net result is the same pattern: dry weather.


Wednesday an area of low pressure and associated cold front moves in, and we will see what the forecast models indicate in terms of snow. All models concur regarding colder weather. Next update: Sun. Jan 18.

Weā€™ve had a weak La NiƱa this winter, which improves the odds for snow, but weak events often deliver average resultsā€”especially when stubborn high pressure keeps storms away.

More from MichaelĀ ā†’


This Winter Snowfall- What Went Wrong So Far


A weak La NiƱaĀ was in place this fall and early winter, and these conditions tilt the odds for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Thus, the Pacific Northwest winter forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center and other sources predicted above normal snowpack for our region. La NiƱa is below average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial waters off South America.


The Northwest Avalanche Center looked at historical snow data and correlations with La NiƱa patterns. They found some very interesting data here. During a weak La NiƱa historial data indicates that ski resorts will have close to average snowpack.


So far this winter, much of Washington has been below normal. The one exception is for much of the northern parts of the state. The map is from 1-1-2026, as the current one could not be downloaded at the time of this report. One can assume the current snowpack has not changed much since 1-1-2026.


Are these extended winter outlooks and seasonal outlooks accurate? According to several sources, precipitation outlooks exhibit lower and more inconsistent skill (compared to temperature). Here is some analysis of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) accuracy. The extended outlooks can give us some guidance especially if there is a strong La NiƱa or a strong El NiƱo. We can see from the Northwest Avalanche Center data that a strong La NiƱa increases the odds of having above average snowpack.


Incidentally, forecasts are showing we will be shifting from the current weak La NiƱa to the El NiƱo phase later this spring. El NiƱo is above average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial waters off South America. The impacts of this will occur after our winter.



Michael Fagin

Meteorologist


P.S. Resort link with webcams below. Not every area is included in every forecast.


Slopes: Elevation General Guidelines

  • Lower Slopes - Under 4000'

  • Mid-Slopes - 4000 to 5500'

  • Upper-Slopes - Above 5500'

February Snowfall History - Snoqualmie Pass- February can still deliver.


Take a look at WSDOT pass reports here: WSDOT
Take a look at WSDOT pass reports here: WSDOT

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  • IGNIK Outdoors. New RIPPLES rechargeable hand warmers. Put these next to your heated socks and vest. Save 25% code: POWDER25.Ā Propane camp stoves.


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Food, Drink & Community

  • The Hall. Gift cards- purchase online. In Kirkland, Queen Anne and Occidental Hall by Lumen Field. Sports bar, family and dog friendly. Weekend Brunch in Kirkland, Sat & Sun. Great food, beer, people and community.

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Health & Wellness

Featured Film: This Must Be the Pace

Join us in Kirkland on Jan 20th. Eight films, one great time.



This Must Be the Place follows sledder Tami Razinger. Balancing late nights of work and early mornings on the mountain, Tami keeps her sights set on spring in Alaska and the pinnacle of the season.




  • Tues, Jan 20 ā€¢ Moss Bay Hall at 111 Central Way in Kirkland

  • Tickets: Adult $15 ā€¢ Youth $10 (18 -10)Ā ā€¢ Child free (8 and under)

List of resorts with webcam links. Please check websites for operations updates.

Sunday forecasts will go out in the afternoons during January and February while Iā€™m on snow teaching the next generation of skiers at Alpental.


Thanks for reading.

ļ»æAndrea


Powder Poobah Resources: NWAC, WSDOT, chains, goggle lens, and more.

WSSSM: Do you know about the Washington State Ski & Snowboard Museum?



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